Apple appears to be heading into 2025 with extraordinary momentum, and market analysts are suggesting that the company could reclaim the top position in global smartphone shipments after more than a decade. Forecasts indicate that next year may close with Apple moving past Samsung in total unit volume, marking a major shift in industry rankings.
| Image credit: Apple
- Apple is poised to overtake Samsung in global smartphone shipments for the first time in over a decade.
- Surging iPhone 17 demand in the US and China is driving Apple’s projected 2025 comeback.
- A massive device replacement cycle is giving Apple a long-term advantage over its rivals.
- Forecasts put Apple at 243M iPhones shipped in 2025, ahead of Samsung’s estimated 235M.
- Analysts expect Apple to hold the No. 1 spot through 2029, signalling a major industry shift.
Apple appears to be heading into 2025 with extraordinary momentum, and market analysts are suggesting that the company could reclaim the top position in global smartphone shipments after more than a decade. Forecasts indicate that next year may close with Apple moving past Samsung in total unit volume, marking a major shift in industry rankings.
Fresh sales data around the iPhone 17 lineup has played a decisive role in this shift. Demand during the first month in the US surpassed the previous generation by a substantial margin, while early performance in China followed a similar trajectory. These jumps in uptake have reinforced expectations that the new series will continue to outperform its predecessors across multiple regions.
Another factor shaping the forecast is the large number of users entering a natural replacement period. Many buyers from the pandemic boom are now searching for new devices, and Apple appears better positioned than its rivals to capture that returning wave. This renewal cycle is expected to stretch over several years, providing Apple with a sustained advantage.
| Image credit: Counterpoint
Projections suggest that by the end of 2025, iPhone shipments could exceed 243 million units, granting Apple close to a fifth of the global market. Samsung’s numbers, by contrast, are estimated to settle slightly lower, with around 235 million units shipped. If the predictions hold, the gap between the two companies may only widen as the decade progresses.
Long-range estimates provided by market observers show Apple maintaining this lead well into 2029. Should that scenario play out, it would represent one of the most significant realignments in the smartphone sector since the early days of modern mobile platforms. The landscape is shifting again, and Apple seems determined to stay at the forefront of that transition.